ADP private sector employment well below forecasts, 119000 vs 170000 forecast, March number revised downward, Friday payroll and employment rate may be worse than expected

ADP private sector employment well below forecasts, 119000 vs 170000 forecast, March number revised downward, Friday payroll and employment rate may be worse than expected

“What do you think a stimulus is? It’s spending – that’s the whole point! Seriously.”…Barack Obama

“…and Socialist governments traditionally do make a financial mess. They [socialists] always run out of other people’s money. It’s quite a characteristic of them.”…Margaret Thatcher

“New, more-accurate estimates show North Carolina’s unemployment rate stayed above 10 percent throughout 2011, falling to 10.2 percent in January in a key election battleground state, the state Commerce Department reported today.”…Greensboro News Record March 14, 2012

From CNBC May 2, 2012.

“Private Sector Adds Just 119,000 Jobs in April: ADP”

“Private-sector employment increased by just 119,000 in April, according a report from ADP that puts a dent into the notion that the jobs market is on the path to a solid recovery.

The report was well below forecasts of 170,000 and comes after a string of stronger numbers.

ADP said service-sector jobs rose by 123,000, but construction fell by 5,000, falling for the first time since September 2011. Manufacturing also lost 5,000, while goods-producing dropped 4,000. Financial services added 13,000 jobs.

The March number was revised downward from 209,000 to 201,000, according to the report, which is done in conjunction with Macroeconomic Advisors.”

“The ADP, then, could be a signal that the payrolls report and the accompanying unemployment rate , due this Friday, could be worse than the expected 168,000. March’s Bureau of Labor Statistics number also was soft, coming in at just 120,000. The report comes as weekly jobless claims have been on a steady trek higher as well.

At the same time, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and his fellow policymakers at the central bank have expressed worry that the employment picture ahead is likely to be weak.

“Today’s miss on the ADP number confirms a broader slowdown in activity more in-line with what the ISM regional data showed earlier in the week and corroborating Bernanke’s hypothesis that the fourth-quarter labor market improvement represented a snapback and that the journey out of the financial crisis is likely to remain arduous,” said Andrew Wilkinson, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak in New York.

“That in turn requires the Fed to keep its shoulder to the wheel and maintain downwards pressure on yields and the balance sheet wider than the Grand Canyon,” he added.

Carlos Rodriguez, president of ADP, said the April numbers are consistent with the first-quarter gross domestic product growth of 2.2 percent, which also was well below economists’ projections and primarily reflected a cutback in government spending.”


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