US labor department BLS jobs data, May 2013, Cooking the books?, Unemployment report revised numbers, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary, Orwell 2 + 2 = 5
US labor department BLS jobs data, May 2013, Cooking the books?, Unemployment report revised numbers, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary, Orwell 2 + 2 = 5
“With a 63.7% labor force participation, “conditions in the labor market are considerably worse than indicated” in July’s report”…economist Joshua Shapiro, WSJ August 3, 2012
“Since the Democrats took control of both houses of congress in January 2007, the number of people who could only find part time work has gone up 215 percent”…Citizen Wells
“Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.”…George Orwell, “1984″
The US Labor Department BLS, Bureau of Labor Statistics, came out with 2 reports in May with their jobs and unemployment data. BLS reports on jobs and unemployment have long been suspect. A recent ADP report on private sector jobs added did not mesh well with the government reports.
The two BLS reports do not mesh well either.
From the BLS May 3, 2013.
“THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION — APRIL 2013”
“The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for February was
revised from +268,000 to +332,000, and the change for March was
revised from +88,000 to +138,000. With these revisions, employment
gains in February and March combined were 114,000 higher than
previously reported.”
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
From the BLS May 7, 2013.
“Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary”
“JOB OPENINGS AND LABOR TURNOVER – MARCH 2013”
Table A. Job openings, hires, and total separations by industry, seasonally adjusted
———————————————————————————————-
| Job openings | Hires | Total separations
|————————————————————–
| Mar. | Feb. | Mar. | Mar. | Feb. | Mar. | Mar. | Feb. | Mar.
| 2012 | 2013 | 2013p| 2012 | 2013 | 2013p| 2012 | 2013 | 2013p
——————————-|————————————————————–
| Levels (in thousands)
|————————————————————–
|3,848 |3,899 |3,844 |4,435 |4,451 |4,259 |4,180 |4,180 |4,213
“Net Change in Employment
Large numbers of hires and separations occur every month throughout the business cycle. Net employment change results from the relationship between hires and separations. When the number of hires exceeds the number of separations, employment rises, even if the hires level is steady or declining.
Conversely, when the number of hires is less than the number of separations, employment declines, even if the hires level is steady or rising. Over the 12 months ending in March 2013, hires totaled 51.8 million and separations totaled 50.1 million, yielding a net employment gain of 1.7 million. These figures include workers who may have been hired and separated more than once during the year.”
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm
The “p” stands for preliminary (decoder ring setting smoke & mirrors).
Using the BLS rules outlined above, the following calculations should yield the employment gains by month.
Feb 2013 hires 4,451,000
Minus
Feb 2013 separations 4,180,000
Feb job gains 271,000
Mar 2013 hires 4,259,000
Minus
Mar 2013 separations 4,213,000
Feb job gains 46,000
From the BLS above:
“The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for February was
revised from +268,000 to +332,000, and the change for March was
revised from +88,000 to +138,000.”
Huh?
Isn’t this what Orwell warned us about?
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