Truth Team real unemployment rate, NC jobs data, Stephanie Cutter, Truth about employment in US and North Carolina, Obama lies

“Guilford (Large NC County) appears on it’s way to a third consecutive year with annual jobless rates in double digits. Economists say that likely hasn’t happened since the Great Depression.”…Greensboro News Record December 2, 2011

“”You’re a traitor!” yelled the boy. “You’re a thought criminal!””…George Orwell, “1984″

“And if all others accepted the lie which the Party imposed
–if all records told the same tale–then the lie passed into
history and became truth. “Who controls the past,” ran the
Party slogan, “controls the future: who controls the present
controls the past.”…George Orwell, “1984″

To:

Stephanie Cutter, Truth Team, et al.

First of all, I would like to thank you for your concerns about the truth about Obama statements and performance. I share those concerns and am happy to share facts with you. The truth.

Since the Democrat Party will be holding the 2012 convention in Charlotte, NC, I am certain that the Truth Team will want the correct figures for North Carolina employment.

Recently Citizen Wells has reported on unemployment in NC.

From Citizen Wells December 4, 2012.

“Jobless figures worst in 80 years”

“data released Thursday by the Employment Security Commission of North Carolina show that Guilford appears on it’s way to a third consecutive year with annual jobless rates in double digits.

Economists say that likely hasn’t happened since the Great Depression.

“I suspect we would have to go back to the 1930′s (to find that),” said Don Jud, professor emeritus at UNCG’s Bryan School of Business and Economics.””

http://citizenwells.wordpress.com/2011/12/04/nc-unemployment-worst-since-great-depression-uncg-and-government-spending-spree-other-peoples-money-obama-supporters-predictable/

From Citizen Wells February 11, 2012.

“While the job market showed signs of growth last year, both Guilford and the state ended 2011 with more people unemployed than was the case the previous
December.

In Guilford , nearly 24,500 didn’t have jobs; statewide, the number surpassed 446,000.

And both the county and the state ended the year with jobless rates of 9.9 percent. That’s equal to or higher than the rates a year earlier.”

“At the current rate of growth–adding 8,300 annually–it will take 3.5 years–or until 2016–to regain the positions lost during and after the Great recession.

“Looking ahead, Quinterno said he expects more of the same this year.

“Absent robust job growth, joblessness and associated hardships will remain widespread,” he wrote. “2012 could well be the fifth consecutive year of negative or minimal job growth in North Carolina.”

http://citizenwells.wordpress.com/2012/02/11/nc-job-growth-dismal-greensboro-news-record-february-11-2012-guilford-county-and-north-carolina-9-9-percent-unemployent-446000-jobless-statewide/

From South by North Strategies, LTD February 10, 2012.

“No Rebound For NC Job Market In 2011”
“North Carolina’s labor market experienced minimal payroll employment growth during 2011. Between December 2010 and December 2011, the state gained 19,600 more payroll jobs than it lost (+0.5 percent). Though the private sector netted 29,400 positions, a net drop of 9,800 government jobs erased one-third of the private-sector gain. With such weak growth, little progress was made against unemployment. Both the number of unemployed individuals and the share of the labor force that was unemployed rose in 2011. And, 2011 marked the fourth consecutive year of negative (2008 and 2009) or minimal (2010 and 2011) job growth in North Carolina.”

“Large Job Gap Remains

The weak job growth recorded during 2011 did little to replace the jobs lost earlier in the business cycle. Since the onset of the “Great Recession,” North Carolina has lost, on net, 295,300 positions, or 7.1 percent of its payroll employment base. The maximum job loss recorded during the business cycle occurred in February 2010, when the state had 323,000 fewer jobs (-7.7 percent) than it did 26 months before. Since that time, North Carolina has netted 27,700 positions (+0.7 percent), for an average monthly gain of nearly 1,300 jobs. While the state’s economy added more jobs in 2011 than in 2010 (+19,600 versus +5,400), the growth was too weak to materially alter the employment situation. Even if the annual level of job growth were to triple, it still would take roughly five years to close the current jobs gap, holding all else equal.

As fig. 3 shows, the job losses recorded during the Great Recession have proven more severe than the ones experienced during the 2001 and 1990-1991 recessions. At the height of the 2001 recession, the state shed 4.5 percent of its jobs base, while the comparable drop during the 1990-1991 recession was 1.9 percent. In both of those recessions, the job gap began to steadily close after the peak job losses were realized. That has not happened during the current cycle. In fact, since December 2009, payroll employment in the state has grown by just 25,000 positions, which has succeeded in lowering the job gap by only 0.6 percentage points.”

“Remember, too, that the job shortfall currently facing North Carolina is actually larger than the one caused by the destruction of jobs during the recession. Since December 2007, the number of working-age Tar Heels has increased by 362,100 (+5.2 percent) persons. This means that payroll employment in the state should have been growing at an average monthly rate of 0.11 percent per month just to keep pace with workforce growth. If one considers the jobs that should have been created over the last four years but were not, the gap facing the state is 518,000 positions (fig. 4). To close that gap by December 2015, holding all else equal, North Carolina would need to net 14,389 jobs per month for each of the next 36 months. At no point since 1990 has North Carolina sustained such a level of growth over so long a period.”

“Joblessness Remains Widespread

Weak job growth in 2011 did little to reduce the problems of unemployment and joblessness in North Carolina. The monthly number of unemployed Tar Heels (seasonally adjusted) averaged 449,679. Furthermore, the average number of unemployed persons rose over the year. On a quarterly basis, there was an average of 16,216 more unemployed persons (+3.7 percent) during 2011.Q4 than one year earlier.

In December 2011, the statewide unemployment rate equaled 9.9 percent, compared to 9.8 percent in December 2010. Throughout 2011, the monthly unemployment rate fluctuated between 9.7 and 10.5 percent. For the year, the average monthly rate was 10 percent, which represented an improvement over the 2010 average rate of 10.5 percent.”

“More Problems Than Simple Unemployment”

“While part of that decline may be attributable to changes in the structure of the workforce (e.g., more people of retirement age), part is likely tied to the decision of frustrated job seekers to abandon their searches. This suggests that joblessness is more widespread than reflected in the official unemployment rate.

Estimates of the underemployment rate, a broader measure of labor under-utilization prepared by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, indicate that 17.9 percent of North Carolina’s adjusted labor force was underemployed, on average, in 2011. That measure includes not only individuals who meet the formal definition of unemployment, but also those working part-time despite preferring full-time work and those marginally attached to the workforce. Over the year, the statewide underemployment rate rose by 0.5 percentage points, rising to 17.9 percent from a level of 17.4 percent in 2010.

Regardless of the exact measure used, a sizable amount of labor in North Carolina is currently sitting idle. Nearly 10 of every 100 members of the state’s labor force are unemployed (seasonally adjusted), while almost 18 of every 100 are underemployed. Moreover, the share of adult North Carolinians with a job has fallen sharply since late 2007. In December 2011, only 55.6 percent of working-age North Carolinians (seasonally adjusted) had jobs, a level no different from the one posted one year prior. This rate actually fell to a low of 55.3 percent near the end of 2011.Q3. At no other time since 1976 has the employment-to-population been as low as it has been in recent months (fig. 7). The current ratio also is well below the historical average rate of 63.6 recorded between January 1976 and December 2007.”

“Perhaps the most troubling indicator of the economic hardships facing North Carolina’s households is the surge in the size of the state’s Food Stamp caseload. Between December 2010 and October 2011, the most recent month with data, the number of Tar Heels participating in the program grew by 7 percent, or 108,073 persons.”

“If recent trends hold, North Carolina’s labor market will not grow robustly in 2012. Even if job growth in the private sector accelerates, it is unlikely to pick up enough to put much of a dent in the problems of unemployment and underemployment. Economic hardships therefore should remain pronounced across much of the state. For the long-term unemployed in particular, their odds of returning will continue to fall, yet the tattered state of the nation’s safety net means that little help will be available for such individuals and their families.

Absent significant changes in economic conditions and public policies, weak job growth, high levels of joblessness, and pervasive economic hardships appear to be in store for North Carolina, with 2012 apt to mark the fifth consecutive year of negative or minimal job growth.”

http://www.sbnstrategies.com/archives/9798

Stephanie Cutter, Truth Team, et al, I have a strong background in Math, Computer Science and business, and as Donald Trump said, I went to some really good schools. So, if you have any difficulty with any of the facts presented here, or as we refer to it in NC, Truth, just let me know. I am at your service.