NC January unemployment rate 5.4 percent LOL, May 2008 comparison showed over 5 percent plummet in participation rate, Jan data not available yet, LAUS data being rectified, BLS 2015 redesign

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NC January unemployment rate 5.4 percent LOL, May 2008 comparison showed over 5 percent plummet in participation rate, Jan data not available yet, LAUS data being rectified, BLS 2015 redesign

“There’s no other way to say this. The official unemployment rate, which cruelly overlooks the suffering of the long-term and often permanently unemployed as well as the depressingly underemployed, amounts to a Big Lie.”…Gallup CEO Jim Clifton 

“11.4%: What the U.S. unemployment rate would be if labor force participation were back to January 2008 levels.” …James Pethokoukis, American Enterprise Institute, June 2013

“the Times of the nineteenth of December had published the official forecasts of the output of various classes of consumption goods in the fourth quarter of 1983, which was also the sixth quarter of the Ninth Three-Year Plan. Today’s issue contained a statement of the actual output, from which it appeared that the forecasts were in every instance grossly wrong. Winston’s job was to rectify the original figures by making them agree with the later ones.”…George Orwell, “1984”

 

***  UPDATE BELOW  ***

The January 2015 employment data for NC was announced March 17.

Several days ago I attempted to access the LAUS, Local Area Unemployment Statistics, for North Carolina.
I got this message :

“Due to maintenance this site is temporarily unavailable. 

You can access our data using one of our other available applications:
AccessNC OR NCWorks

If you need to contact us please call 919.707.1500.”

The next day I called, was transferred to a specialist & left a message.

I have received no return call.

From the US Labor Department BLS.

“What does the LAUS 2015 Redesign entail?

The 2015 LAUS Redesign includes improved time-series models for the census divisions, states, select substate areas, and the balances of those states; an improved real-time benchmarking procedure to the national Current Population Survey (CPS) estimates; an improved smoothed seasonal adjustment procedure; and improved treatment of outliers.

Non-modeled area estimation improvements include: updated Dynamic Residency Ratios (DRR); more accurate estimates for all-other employment; more accurate estimation of agricultural employment; and improved estimation of non-covered agricultural unemployment. Handbook estimation is now done at the county level instead of at the Labor Market Area (LMA) level, which better reflects local conditions. The Redesign also introduces estimation inputs from the American Community Survey (ACS) to replace inputs that were previously obtained from the decennial census long-form survey.

In addition, 2010 Office of Management and Budget (OMB) delineations for metropolitan areas, metropolitan divisions, and micropolitan areas and new LAUS small labor market areas will be implemented with the 2015 LAUS Redesign.

How often does LAUS conduct major redesigns to its methodology?
Typically every 10 years.

When will the LAUS 2015 Redesign changes be implemented?
The 2015 Redesign is being implemented with the publication of January 2015 estimates.”

“Why is LAUS making these program improvements?

Some issues have been identified with the 2005 methods of estimation at the state and substate levels that affect accuracy and analysis of the estimates. Because LAUS is committed to producing high-quality data, it must conduct research and improve its methods and procedures. Moreover, when data sources cease to exist, it must find new sources to replace them. The 2015 state and substate estimation approaches generate more accurate and reliable estimates.”

“How will the LAUS 2015 Redesign affect historical comparisons?

For the census divisions, states, and balance of states, the entire historical series from January 1976 forward will be replaced with estimates based on the redesigned models. For the five modeled metropolitan areas and divisions, the plan is to re-estimate back to 1990. For the remaining substate areas, the re-estimation with the new methodology will be carried back to 2010. Hence, many areas can be expected to display breaks in series between 2009 and 2010.”

http://www.bls.gov/lau/2015redesignqa.htm#Q02

I can’t wait to see the “rectifications.”

I have criticized NC Governor Pat McCrory as well as Obama.

From Citizen Wells February 5, 2015.

From the State Of the State speech February 4, 2015.

“As I said, two years ago, our unemployment rate was the fifth highest in the nation. So we all rolled up our sleeves, made the tough decisions, and as of today, the private sector has created nearly 200,000 new jobs. We went from the 5th highest in unemployment to the 23rd lowest, and now we’re even beating South Carolina. Despite this tremendous accomplishment there are still a lot of communities, small businesses, and individuals that are hurting, and there is still much work to be done. Therefore, my administration’s focus will be on five areas that have the greatest impact on our people. ”

“Much of the drop in the unemployment rate in NC came from people dropping out of the labor force.

From Citizen Wells December 21, 2014.

“Despite what you may have read from the low information mainstream media, baby boomers retiring are not the cause of the drop in the labor force in NC or US.

Do the math or read prior articles at Citizen Wells.

Lack of jobs is the problem.

From May of 2008 to November of 2014, the labor force participation rate plummeted 5 percent in NC. The unemployment rate is the same.””

“Greensboro News Record February 5, 2015.

“The unemployment rate in the Greensboro-High Point metro area decreased to 5.3 percent in December 2014, compared with 6.9 percent in December 2013, according to a report from the N.C. Department of Commerce.”

““The state’s labor force shrunk 0.2 percent in November, losing 13,534 people. Over the past year, the labor force has shrunk 0.7 percent, for a reduction of 31,665 people.

A shrinking labor force will drive down the unemployment rate because fewer people are looking for work.””

“From the Center for Immigration Studies August 2014.

“An analysis of government data by the Center for Immigration Studies shows that, since 2000, all of the net increase in the number of working-age (16 to 65) people holding a job in North Carolina has gone to immigrants (legal and illegal). This is the case even though the native-born accounted for 61 percent of growth in the state’s total working-age population.””

https://citizenwells.wordpress.com/2015/02/05/nc-governor-pat-mccrory-speech-on-employment-misleading-big-unemployment-rate-lie-greensboro-news-record-article-record-numbers-leave-labor-force-percent-of-population-working-plummets-immigrants/

The primary reason that the unemployment rate has dropped is due to the plummet of the labor force participation.

From Citizen Wells January 29, 2015.

“NC labor force participation rate plummets 5.3 percent since May 2008, Reason for unemployment rate drop, Reason for drop in claims, No more employees left to lay off, NC ninth most populous state”

https://citizenwells.wordpress.com/2015/01/29/nc-labor-force-participation-rate-plummets-5-3-percent-since-may-2008-reason-for-unemployment-rate-drop-reason-for-drop-in-claims-no-more-employees-left-to-lay-off-nc-ninth-most-populous-state/

From Citizen Wells December 21, 2014.

“Despite what you may have read from the low information mainstream media, baby boomers retiring are not the cause of the drop in the labor force in NC or US.

Do the math or read prior articles at Citizen Wells.

Lack of jobs is the problem.

From May of 2008 to November of 2014, the labor force participation rate plummeted 5 percent in NC. The unemployment rate is the same.

From NC Spin December 20, 2014.

“North Carolina’s jobless rate fell to 5.8 percent in November, the lowest since May 2008, as the state’s economy gains force in the second half of the year.”

https://citizenwells.wordpress.com/2014/12/21/nc-labor-force-participation-rate-plummets-5-percent-from-may-2008-to-november-2014-unemployment-rate-same-baby-boomers-retiring-not-cause-of-labor-force-drop-lack-of-jobs-causes-younger-people-to/

 

***  Update 3/21/2015 10:10 AM  ***

From the NC LAUS

“This application is expected to be available on March 24, 2015.”

 

 

 

 






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