Election 2008, latest polls, AOL, CNN, Rasmussen, Obama, Clinton, McCain

Barack Obama has slipped in the polls due to his connection with racist pastor Jeremiah Wright. Polling data is always suspect, however, the new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll today, March 18, 2008 looks suspect. Here is the Rasmussen data that came out yesterday:

“The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows John McCain with a six-percentage point lead over both potential Democratic opponents. McCain currently leads Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton by an identical 48% to 42% margin. McCain has a double-digit lead over Clinton among unaffiliated voters and is essentially even with Obama among those same voters. However, McCain makes greater inroads among Democrats with Obama as the nominee.”

The Rasmussen data appears to reflect the reaction of the public to racist comments of pastor Jeremiah Wright, Barack Obama’s pastor and mentor. Now look at the CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll data:

Obama and Clinton are locked in a dead heat with the Arizona senator. If Obama wins the nomination, he would get 47 percent of the vote compared to 46 percent for McCain,  a statistical tie given the poll’s 3 percentage point margin of error. If Clinton wins the nomination, the poll indicates she would get 49 percent compared to McCain’s 47 percent,  also a statistical tie.

“Clinton appears to do a little bit better than Obama among older voters, women, and self-identified Democrats against McCain; Obama’s numbers may be slightly better among younger voters and those who describe themselves as Republicans and Independents,”

Is the CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll biased?

Now for the AOL unscientific poll today. Today, March 18 2008 at approx 12:00 PM, here are the results:

Who do you think will be the Democratic presidential nominee?
Hillary Clinton 50% 
Barack Obama 50% 

Total Votes: 83,497

Which candidate would make the best president?
John McCain 48% 
Hillary Clinton 30% 
Barack Obama 22% 

Total Votes: 91,723

Interesting!






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